RWNJ Conservative Views from Cincinnati

A surprising Rasmussen poll shows McCain is now polling ahead of Obama on the economy and taxes.  A month ago, McCain was polling 3 points behind on taxes.  Currently, he is polling 2 points ahead.  Obama seems to have hurt himself some with his answer to Joe the Plumber of “spreading the wealth around”.  A month ago, McCain was 9 points behind on the economy.  Now, he is 1 point ahead.

While these are small margins, it is yet more evidence that McCain is gaining momentum entering the election.

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The latest Gallup likely voter poll shows McCain is only trailing Obama by 2 points (49-47).  Various polls continue to show the race tightening up as election day approaches.  Zogby is showing McCain behind by 4 points (49-45).  Rasmussen shows a 5 point deficit (51-46).  IBD shows a 4 point differential (48-44).  Battleground shows 3 points (49-46).

I still say the election is not in the bag for Obama.  The momentum still seems to be shifting back to McCain, if he can hold the momentum for the next week, the election is anyone’s game.

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Gateway Pundit posted up a reminder of the 2000 election.  In October 2000, Bush trailed Gore in the polls, 51-40.  With the polls being all over the place this year, reliability is in question anyhow.  Reagan even trailed Carter in the polls back in 1980.

McCain cannot be written off in this race, and Obama shouldn’t be picking out the curtains for the Oval Office just yet.

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AP just released a poll of likely voters showing Obama 44 – McCain 43 among likely voters.  At the same time, FOXNews just released a poll of likely voters showing Obama 49 – McCain 40.  The AP poll did oversample Democrats, so it seems illogical for these polls to be so scattered.  Gallup’s poll has shown McCain closing the gap as well, now showing Obama 50 – McCain 45.  Yesterday, this poll was Obama 51 to McCain’s 44.

More telling, 80% of likely voters think McCain has the right experience to be President.  45% of likely voters believe that Obama does not have the right experience to be President.  When it comes down to the actual vote, this may play in people’s minds.  The risk of an inexperienced President is one that many voters will not be able to stomach.

Of course there are many that say the Bradley effect might make the polls even more useless than usual.  Given the inaccuracies of the pre-election polls (and even the exit polling) in 2000 and 2004, all polls should be taken with a grain of salt.  It’s even more the case when they are so inconsistent like they are now.

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The latest Zogby pollshows McCain has decreased his deficit to only 2.7% (within the error margin of 2.9%).  This continues the 4 day trend of a narrowing Obama lead by the Zogby poll.  McCain’s biggest gains have been in the independent voter category, cutting in half the gap there from 16% to 8%.

It appears that recent events, such as ACORN and Obama’s gaffe with Joe the Plumber are starting to show in the polls.  McCain’s appearance on Letterman seems to have gone over well, helping his cause.  Neither candidate should feel safe with 7.1% of the electorate still undecided.  Once again, this race is taking on the look of a close run to the finish.

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