RWNJ Conservative Views from Cincinnati

Still no call, but the exit polls in Ohio show Obama ahead by 8.  If McCain were to lose Ohio it would pretty much seal victory for Obama.

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According to The Drudge Report, Pennsylvania exit polls are showing that Obama is up 15%.  If that is the case, McCain’s path to victory will be much more limited.

Update (9:10PM): This was simply no contest.  Exit polls showed a big victory for Obama despite all the work Murtha did to insult the southwestern part of the state.  Who knows, maybe insulting your constituents is the new way to win?  Speaking of Murtha, It’s way too early to call that race.

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First off, let me preface by saying that exit polling has been extremely unreliable.  But, if you are itching to see what the night is going to bring, here are what I believe the key swing-state races are to watch tonight (times are Eastern).

7PM: Virginia is likely place to look for a McCain victory.  Although it is possible for McCain to win without Virginia, it would be an uphill battle.  Georgia and Indiana should be solidly in McCain’s column (despite what the polls have said).  If he loses 2 of these three, it’s not going to be a good night for McCain.

7:30PM: Ohio, as usual of late, has the potential to be the deciding state in this election.

8PM: Missouri should fall to McCain and a win by Obama here is disaster for McCain.  Pennsylvania has been a war zone of late for the election, and a win here by McCain would be a major blow to the Obama campaign.  Given its independent nature, New Hampshire is a possibility for McCain, though I think a bit of a long-shot.

9PM: It should be clear if this will be a close race or not by this point.  If it is still close, the race will hinge on a few states.  Obama is looking to pick up Colorado, which looks to be a true toss-up at this point.  New Mexico has been leaning towards Obama, but a McCain victory has a distant possibility.  Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are long-shots for McCain, but it’s his best chance at winning the election if he didn’t secure Pennsylvania.

10PM: Nevada is the last of the toss-ups, winnable by either candidate.  By this point it’ll probably be clear where things lie in the race.

I predict it will either be a long night (good sign for McCain), or it’ll be over swiftly.  A McCain sweep of Georgia, Indiana, Virginia, and Ohio will keep his hopes quite alive.  Pennsylvania would likely tip the tide into his favor.  These early battles will set the tone for the night.

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The IBD Poll shows more McCain gains today. McCain trails in the poll 46.7% to 44.6%.  8.7% say they are still undecided.

McCain has pulled even in the Midwest, increased his lead with Protestants and Catholics, and is now ahead with High School Graduates.  Most importantly, he has switched some Independents to his side from Obama.  This is the tightest the IBD poll has been since October 23.

More details at the IBD Site.

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Momentum appears to have continued for McCain as the latest Zogby poll shows that McCain has a 1 point lead in 1-day polling (48-47).  The three-day poll has held steady (at 49-44 Obama), but that is due to a good day of polling Obama had 3 days ago.  Another good day of polling for McCain will show the three-day poll tighten dramatically.

McCain has made inroads with women, most likely conservative women put off by Obama’s continued support of a “spread the wealth” philosophy.  He has also cut into independents and now even leads with blue collar voters.

The election could really turn into a nail-biter, but then again the disparity in the polls could be evidence that the polls are not indicative of how this race will end up.

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