RWNJ » Polls

WSJ: Public Confidence in Obama Dropping

admin — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 14:46:51 +0000

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that confidence in Obama is rapidly dropping. Obama’s numbers have now dropped to the point that they are lower than President Bush in this point in 2001. His net approval rating was as low as +6% this week according to Rasmussen. The article points out multiple signs of trouble in the polling data:

A third strongly disapprove of Obama’s performance.
Obama has lost nearly all Republican support and a large portion of Independant support.
Support is dropping more rapidly than other Presidents of the 20th and 21st centuries.
83% are concerned Obama’s policies will not improve the economy.
82% are worried about the growing deficit.
78% are concerned about inflation.
69% are worried about Government’s increasing role in the economy.
Less should have been spent on the stimulus according to a 3-to-1 margin.
Obama’s budget is opposed by a 46% to 41% margin.
Voters reject Pelosi’s idea of a second stimulus by a 2-to-1 margin.
The feeling is that the mortgage bailout will unfairly benefit the irresponsible by 48% to 36%.
45% do not have confidence in the direction Obama is taking.
Less than half suport increasing taxes for expanded health-insurance (17% less support than 1993).
Only 20% support the most recent bank bailout.

Americans Losing Confidence in Congress

admin — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:35:06 +0000

Another interesting poll from Rasmussen:

67% trust their judgment more than the average member of Congress. Even more surprising 44% think a group of people randomly selected from the phone book could address the nation’s problems better than Congress! Only 37% disagree with them. This does not bode well for the Democrats so early into holding majorities in the House, Senate, and Presidency.

It is clear that the stimulus package is starting to take a toll on the Democrats. Public support is falling not only for the package, but for the party that is pushing it. The “bold and swift action” that Obama is pressing for could end up expensive if an equally swift economic reaction does not result from its passing.

Only 20% Want Stimulus Passed As Is

admin — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 17:14:13 +0000

Rasmussen released a poll showing that only 20% want the stimulus plan passed as it stands today. 62% actually believe that more tax cuts should be added to the plan and the spending should be cut. Only 14% believe that there should be more spending in the plan and less tax cuts.

If ever there was a clear message that the public believes Conservatism is the answer to the economy, this is it!

Presidential Poll Accuracy Revealed

admin — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 22:23:57 +0000

Fordham has provided this list of polls and their accuracy compared to the real election. As expected, the polls overestimated Democratic support, but only by 1.37 percent. 23 polls overestimated Obama’s strength, only 4 polls overestimated McCain’s. Rasmussen and Pew got the election spot on!

The List
1(T). Rasmussen (11/1-3)
1(T). Pew (10/29-11/1)
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)
6(T). Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)
6(T). ARG (10/25-27)
8(T). CNN (10/30-11/1)
8(T). Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Exit Polling and State Calls Favoring Obama

admin — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:08:41 +0000

New Mexico has just been called for Obama. With Pennsylvania going early to Obama, numbers are looking worse for McCain.

It appears that my early instincts on the states to watch were correct. At this point, if McCain loses Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, or Colorado, it will be safe to call this race.

On the Senate side of things, the Democrats have only picked up 3 seats so far. It appears that they won’t be able to hit that filibuster-proof number of 60 barring a miracle.

Ohio Exit Polls – Obama 53, McCain 45

admin — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:38:38 +0000

Still no call, but the exit polls in Ohio show Obama ahead by 8. If McCain were to lose Ohio it would pretty much seal victory for Obama.

Pennsylvania Exit Polls Show +15% for Obama

admin — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:16:06 +0000

According to The Drudge Report, Pennsylvania exit polls are showing that Obama is up 15%. If that is the case, McCain’s path to victory will be much more limited.

Update (9:10PM): This was simply no contest. Exit polls showed a big victory for Obama despite all the work Murtha did to insult the southwestern part of the state. Who knows, maybe insulting your constituents is the new way to win? Speaking of Murtha, It’s way too early to call that race.

States and Exit Polls to Watch in the 2008 Election

admin — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:01:47 +0000

First off, let me preface by saying that exit polling has been extremely unreliable. But, if you are itching to see what the night is going to bring, here are what I believe the key swing-state races are to watch tonight (times are Eastern).

7PM: Virginia is likely place to look for a McCain victory. Although it is possible for McCain to win without Virginia, it would be an uphill battle. Georgia and Indiana should be solidly in McCain’s column (despite what the polls have said). If he loses 2 of these three, it’s not going to be a good night for McCain.

7:30PM: Ohio, as usual of late, has the potential to be the deciding state in this election.

8PM: Missouri should fall to McCain and a win by Obama here is disaster for McCain. Pennsylvania has been a war zone of late for the election, and a win here by McCain would be a major blow to the Obama campaign. Given its independent nature, New Hampshire is a possibility for McCain, though I think a bit of a long-shot.

9PM: It should be clear if this will be a close race or not by this point. If it is still close, the race will hinge on a few states. Obama is looking to pick up Colorado, which looks to be a true toss-up at this point. New Mexico has been leaning towards Obama, but a McCain victory has a distant possibility. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are long-shots for McCain, but it’s his best chance at winning the election if he didn’t secure Pennsylvania.

10PM: Nevada is the last of the toss-ups, winnable by either candidate. By this point it’ll probably be clear where things lie in the race.

I predict it will either be a long night (good sign for McCain), or it’ll be over swiftly. A McCain sweep of Georgia, Indiana, Virginia, and Ohio will keep his hopes quite alive. Pennsylvania would likely tip the tide into his favor. These early battles will set the tone for the night.

IBD/TIPP Poll Down to 2 Points

admin — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:04:35 +0000

The IBD Poll shows more McCain gains today. McCain trails in the poll 46.7% to 44.6%. 8.7% say they are still undecided.

McCain has pulled even in the Midwest, increased his lead with Protestants and Catholics, and is now ahead with High School Graduates. Most importantly, he has switched some Independents to his side from Obama. This is the tightest the IBD poll has been since October 23.

More details at the IBD Site.

McCain Leads Obama in Zogby 1-Day Poll

admin — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 13:37:34 +0000

Momentum appears to have continued for McCain as the latest Zogby poll shows that McCain has a 1 point lead in 1-day polling (48-47). The three-day poll has held steady (at 49-44 Obama), but that is due to a good day of polling Obama had 3 days ago. Another good day of polling for McCain will show the three-day poll tighten dramatically.

McCain has made inroads with women, most likely conservative women put off by Obama’s continued support of a “spread the wealth” philosophy. He has also cut into independents and now even leads with blue collar voters.

The election could really turn into a nail-biter, but then again the disparity in the polls could be evidence that the polls are not indicative of how this race will end up.

Rasmussen: McCain More Trusted on Economy and Taxes

admin — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 13:10:58 +0000

A surprising Rasmussen poll shows McCain is now polling ahead of Obama on the economy and taxes. A month ago, McCain was polling 3 points behind on taxes. Currently, he is polling 2 points ahead. Obama seems to have hurt himself some with his answer to Joe the Plumber of “spreading the wealth around”. A month ago, McCain was 9 points behind on the economy. Now, he is 1 point ahead.

While these are small margins, it is yet more evidence that McCain is gaining momentum entering the election.

Gallup Poll: Obama 49 – McCain 47

admin — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:19:57 +0000

The latest Gallup likely voter poll shows McCain is only trailing Obama by 2 points (49-47). Various polls continue to show the race tightening up as election day approaches. Zogby is showing McCain behind by 4 points (49-45). Rasmussen shows a 5 point deficit (51-46). IBD shows a 4 point differential (48-44). Battleground shows 3 points (49-46).

I still say the election is not in the bag for Obama. The momentum still seems to be shifting back to McCain, if he can hold the momentum for the next week, the election is anyone’s game.

Bush Trailed Gore by 11 in October 2000

admin — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 21:07:26 +0000

Gateway Pundit posted up a reminder of the 2000 election. In October 2000, Bush trailed Gore in the polls, 51-40. With the polls being all over the place this year, reliability is in question anyhow. Reagan even trailed Carter in the polls back in 1980.

McCain cannot be written off in this race, and Obama shouldn’t be picking out the curtains for the Oval Office just yet.

Presidential Polls All Over the Place

admin — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:46:56 +0000

AP just released a poll of likely voters showing Obama 44 – McCain 43 among likely voters. At the same time, FOXNews just released a poll of likely voters showing Obama 49 – McCain 40. The AP poll did oversample Democrats, so it seems illogical for these polls to be so scattered. Gallup’s poll has shown McCain closing the gap as well, now showing Obama 50 – McCain 45. Yesterday, this poll was Obama 51 to McCain’s 44.

More telling, 80% of likely voters think McCain has the right experience to be President. 45% of likely voters believe that Obama does not have the right experience to be President. When it comes down to the actual vote, this may play in people’s minds. The risk of an inexperienced President is one that many voters will not be able to stomach.

Of course there are many that say the Bradley effect might make the polls even more useless than usual. Given the inaccuracies of the pre-election polls (and even the exit polling) in 2000 and 2004, all polls should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s even more the case when they are so inconsistent like they are now.

Zogby Polls Narrow to Under 3 Points

admin — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 16:58:31 +0000

The latest Zogby pollshows McCain has decreased his deficit to only 2.7% (within the error margin of 2.9%). This continues the 4 day trend of a narrowing Obama lead by the Zogby poll. McCain’s biggest gains have been in the independent voter category, cutting in half the gap there from 16% to 8%.

It appears that recent events, such as ACORN and Obama’s gaffe with Joe the Plumber are starting to show in the polls. McCain’s appearance on Letterman seems to have gone over well, helping his cause. Neither candidate should feel safe with 7.1% of the electorate still undecided. Once again, this race is taking on the look of a close run to the finish.