RWNJ Conservative Views from Cincinnati

In a turnaround from the doom and gloom that Obama has spreading since taking office, he switched back to a more “hope” inspired speech. Unfortunately, it appears he is still going to push towards a Government-based solution. As a Conservative, I believe strongly that America is best when its citizens learn self-reliance. Government should strengthen its citizens, not itself.

Obama stated that he has identified $2 Trillion in savings over the next 10 years. Though the ten year forecast seems popular in Government, Obama truly only has control over his own term (4 years, possibly 8). Even so, $2 Trillion isn’t much more than the stimulus and mortgage bailout (well over $1 Trillion) which he’s spent in only his first month in office. Furthermore, Obama’s budget proposal seems to heavily depend upon tax increases on both corporations and business owners that will heavily affect the job market. Some in Congress will have the foresight to see the ill effects to the economy and will fight hard to prevent this mistake from occurring.

I am still concerned that he continues to push that his plans will “save or create 3.5 million jobs” as if it is a fact. His own economists stated: “It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error…. Our estimates of economic relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity.” It’s nice to have predictions, but the expectations are set high. Ideas similar to Obama’s that have been tried in the past have come up well short of their predicted values.

Obama’s Address in full is embedded below:

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The Congressional Budget Office (a group that provides non-partisan aid on economic and budgetary considerations to the Congress) has said that the proposed stimulus package would actually be worse than taking no action at all.  They estimate that by 2019 the legislation would reduce GDP by .1 to .3 percent.  Their reasoning is that the large amount of debt incurred by this bill would reduce private investment even more than inaction would.  They further went on to state that although the bill would create jobs, the effect would be miniscule by 2011.

Washington Times article is available here.

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Yeah yeah, I know “misspeak!”…  I just find this humorous (besides, as much as everyone made fun of Bush’s pronunciation of ‘nuclear’ the door is open anytime a pol makes any sort of mistake).  Seeing as how our population is around 300 million (including elderly, children, illegals, etc), everyone is losing their job twice a month on average.  I guess I should be happy I was only laid off twice in 16 months!

Regardless if this is a misspeak, ignorance, or exaggeration, this approx $1 trillion pork-filled package isn’t an instant cure.

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It seems Obama is falling for the same flawed economic logic that fooled FDR back in the 1930’s.  The New York Post is reporting that Obama is wanting to push through a $500 million (4% of US GDP) stimulus package similar to FDR’s “New Deal”.

While investing in infrastructure, replacing bridges, and rebuilding roads is great for the construction industry, it suffers from “lag”.  Often, by the time the investment is felt from an economic standpoint, the economic issues are past.  It is not a quick fix to economic woes, as Roosevelt found out in the 30’s.

Jason Furman, one of Obama’s chief economic advisers, wrote, “In the past, infrastructure projects that were initiated as the economy started to weaken did not involve substantial amounts of spending until after the economy had recovered.”  Alan Blinder, another of Obama’s economic advisers, said that spending money on public works for the purpose of economic recovery was “wasteful”.

So here we are, looking at what essentially is pork (even larger than Ted Stevens’ wildest dreams) and it’s being pandered as an economic recovery package.  I have no problem with backing the repair of our aging and sometimes dangerous infrastructure, but I certainly don’t like the packaging.

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I might be a bit slower with my postings for a while.  Found out today that I am laid off (sorry to disappoint all my left-leaning readers that thought I was a greedy and filthy rich…  I’m middle class, even well under Obama’s strictest standards, but still dislike wealth redistribution).  I’ll still try to post daily or more, but if I miss from time to time you’ll know why.

Wish me luck on the job search, Ohio isn’t the bastion of job availability and the incoming President’s plans are going to make it even worse.

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