Presidential Poll Accuracy Revealed

Fordham has provided this list of polls and their accuracy compared to the real election.  As expected, the polls overestimated Democratic support, but only by 1.37 percent.  23 polls overestimated Obama’s strength, only 4 polls overestimated McCain’s.  Rasmussen and Pew got the election spot on!

The List
1(T). Rasmussen (11/1-3)
1(T). Pew (10/29-11/1)
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)
6(T). Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)
6(T). ARG (10/25-27)
8(T). CNN (10/30-11/1)
8(T). Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

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Posted under Economy

Written by admin on November 6, 2008

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Obama Campaign Workers in Indianapolis Having Difficulty Getting Paid

Obama is already running into difficulties spreading the wealth.  WTHR in Indianapolis is reporting that some of the Obama campaign workers had difficulty getting paid yesterday.  Some are claiming they are being short changed on what they were told they would pay.  All had to wait past the time they were told they would be paid.  Many sounded upset.

Video is on the WTHR article.

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Posted under Election

Written by admin on November 6, 2008

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Stocks Take Record Drop After Obama Victory

Stocks set a new post-election drop record Wednesday after Obama’s win in the 2008 Presidential election.  Wall Street clearly has some concerns about the uncertainty of the future in an Obama presidency.  Some key decisions, such as nomination of a Treasury Secretary, will help Obama either gain or lose more of Wall Street’s confidence.

A Yahoo news article points out some of the issues Wall Street may have with Obama.  One I may add is that adding more tax burden those that create jobs and determine the price of goods is never good for business.  It’s an even worse idea in a bad economy.  It always makes me think of the good old “bar stool economics” bit.

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Posted under Economy

Written by admin on November 6, 2008

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Least Active Tropical Weather in Last 30 Years

Florida State University released a study showing that the past 24 months tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere is the most inactive in the past 30 years.  2007 was the least active year since 1977, and the 4th slowest year since 1958.

Some are starting to reconsider the notion that global warming is intensifying hurricanes.  One thing is clear, climate and hurricanes are complex and we still have much to learn before we can leap to conclusions.

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Posted under Climate

Written by admin on November 5, 2008

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2008 Ohio Issues – Calling a Couple

Just a couple Ohio initiatives that can be called.

Issue 6 – The Clinton Casino issue will fail.

Issue 5 – The Payday Lending issue will pass.

The “Battle of the Steves” is still undecided as of now.  I expect that this will be close and might not be called tonight.  Chabot is currently trailing Driehaus, but very few precincts have reported.  It’s too early to call this one.

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Posted under Election

Written by admin on November 4, 2008

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