Fordham has provided this list of polls and their accuracy compared to the real election. As expected, the polls overestimated Democratic support, but only by 1.37 percent. 23 polls overestimated Obama’s strength, only 4 polls overestimated McCain’s. Rasmussen and Pew got the election spot on!
The List
1(T). Rasmussen (11/1-3)
1(T). Pew (10/29-11/1)
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)
6(T). Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)
6(T). ARG (10/25-27)
8(T). CNN (10/30-11/1)
8(T). Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
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Posted under Economy
Written by admin on November 6, 2008
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A 1.37% overestimate is really nothing when you are talking about something as shaky as poll results. What I’d be interested in is your comments about some of the anonymous McCain workers’ complaints (practically attacks) about Sarah Palin. Have you read about those?
Yeah, I was impressed at how close it all was. I don’t think anyone was surprised that the polls leaned left (it just seems to be the demographic of who will/won’t answer polls), but the small degree of which it leaned is definitely a sign that the pollsters are improving!
I hadn’t come across anything on Palin, got any links? I’ve honestly not had a ton of time to even search for much news of late thanks to some dire worries at work.
Looks like the complaints are all anonymous and wouldn’t surprise me if they were fabricated.
Link