AP just released a poll of likely voters showing Obama 44 – McCain 43 among likely voters. At the same time, FOXNews just released a poll of likely voters showing Obama 49 – McCain 40. The AP poll did oversample Democrats, so it seems illogical for these polls to be so scattered. Gallup’s poll has shown McCain closing the gap as well, now showing Obama 50 – McCain 45. Yesterday, this poll was Obama 51 to McCain’s 44.
More telling, 80% of likely voters think McCain has the right experience to be President. 45% of likely voters believe that Obama does not have the right experience to be President. When it comes down to the actual vote, this may play in people’s minds. The risk of an inexperienced President is one that many voters will not be able to stomach.
Of course there are many that say the Bradley effect might make the polls even more useless than usual. Given the inaccuracies of the pre-election polls (and even the exit polling) in 2000 and 2004, all polls should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s even more the case when they are so inconsistent like they are now.
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Posted under Election
Written by admin on October 22, 2008
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I agree. The polls are often misleading. The fact that you can show polls varying so widely indicates just how inaccurate they can be. I also agree that some voters have concerns about Obama’s experience (or lack thereof) but there are also voter’s concern over McCain’s hot-headedness. And I know some people who won’t vote for McCain because he’s so old and they fear that if something happened to him, Palin would be President. I get the feeling that a lot of people will be voting “against” someone rather than “for” someone.
Well said, Preston. It’s a shame that so many feel they are going to be voting just like you said, against someone instead of for someone.